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Moving tires offer less traction than stationary ones. You are absolutely correct regarding the upward lift, and the fix.

As I noted above, Sean.

In using a mounted winch, one can anchor the truck to remove all slippage from the equation. Then it's just a matter of knowing the pull you can generate, subtract some for angles and friction, factor in the breaking strength of the components of gear in use, allow for a safety margin...and...

If what you are doing with pulling is making you nervous, I'd consider that a bright red flag (or at least an orange one :)). Do something different that doesn't make you nervous. I have posted for a couple of decades here in the TH my considered opinion that a truck mounted winch is superior...

Still be a lot of variables, not really duplicable...and thus not very informative, perhaps.