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Not really a clue, here. But my guess is, more than a single rainy day, for sure. I think I'd be looking for more than a rainy month, even.

It came to my mind to toss this out there, from my safe rocker on the front porch :). Over the many years I climbed, and instructed climbers, it was a normal part of the hazard analysis to consider droughty weather as a factor that can/will increase the likelihood of limb and even stem...